You are referring to "backwardation" of a back month futures contract.
"In practice, the expected future spot price is unknown, and the term "backwardation" may be used to refer to "positive basis", which occurs when the current spot price exceeds the price of the future."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_back...
Particularly interesting is the long streak of backwardation that happened in 1984-1991. During this time of backwardation, the S&P 500 returned positive every year between 1984-1990 for a total of 221%.
I saw that the E-mini S&P 500 futures for December were trading at around 1910....but currently the S&P sits at 1927ish....des the market really expect a dropoff by december?
