> Exchange Rate Risk?

Exchange Rate Risk?

Posted at: 2014-12-05 
One way to hedge your currency exposure would be to buy a currency option with a particular exchange rate price which could be exercised 3 months from now. However, because you speculate that the value of the currency you currently possess (i.e. domestic currency) will increase relative to the value of foreign currency, you would hedge your currency exposure.

It depends on how certain you are in your speculation. If you REALLY BELIEVED that domestic currency will appreciate relative to foreign currency, then you would not have to consider the case in which domestic currency depreciated. You could hedge using a spread depending on how much you believed the currency would appreciate.

Let me know if this makes any sense

First off, even if you can hit the capital key and type " REALLY BELIEVED", it doesn't mean squat. What you know is the same as what the rest of the world knows which is that the currency is expected to move to the current 3-month forward rate. Anything else is just childish and if you could predict currency movements you should get out of the export business and get into the hedge fund business.

You currently have accounts payable denominated in some foreign currency. Sitting on that is just uncompensated balance sheet volatility. You buy a 3-month forward contract for the currency reuired at the current forward rate and hedge out the exposure. If you "KNOW" that the domestic currency is going to appreciate it is because of interest rate parity and that will be included in the forward price. Meanwhile you get rid of balance sheet vol and go about life as an exporter instead of some ersatz forex trader.

If you are an exporter who must make payments in foreign currency three months after receiving each shipment and you predict that the domestic currency will appreciate in value over this period, is there any value in hedging your currency exposure?