Nelson, it doesn't really matter what any of the commodities do in the long term, because they're all going to go up, and up and farther up.
Just don't do like the Hunt brothers did @ 30 + years ago. They tried to corner the Silver market and ended up taking a huge loss, but had they not overextended themselves they would have done all right just 6 months later.
I remember a man I knew asking me if Gold was going to continue to go up, at the time it was middle or late 1979 and Gold was @ $770 an oz, and I told him, "I don't see why not!"
Well, Gold and Silver went down @ 4 months later, but I never saw that man again, so I never got the chance to ask him how he came out. I remember how anxious he sounded when he was asking me, so he probably went into the market a little deeper and got creamed.
My recommendation to you is: don't invest in the market, but in derivatives of the market. Things like Index's or Muni's or Mutual Funds, things that are a mixture of issues where 'the group' can be measured and graphed and where the information can be less easily mistaken because the group will act differently than an individual share or issue, but the total will move less unless the information that causes it to move is catastrophic where it affects many types of issues in the same group.
You know, kind of like what is affecting just about every country right now - this recession.
To me, the things about stock that I like are the blue chips and the dividends they pay, and I really like Utility Bonds, they're like slot machines, but they pay every month, and Mutual Funds, well, I still have the Fidelity Magellan that I bought in 1972. You compound that sometime, but if I want to take a risk I'll bet on a Put or a Call on a currency trade of the USD against GBP, or the Swiss Franc, or Euro, or the Aus or Can Dollar or the Japanese Yen. Oh how I wish the Yen was not propped up my their government.
If you want to gamble go to a casino, at least you will see who's taking your money.
More than once I've spent all my free time, for a week or more, trying to come up with a fairly safe way of winning at commodity trading, but never did. I did lose a lot of money a few times, and I made a few dollars once in a while, but I never learned the art very will.
John
There was never a time when "gold was $20"....
http://www.finfacts.ie/Private/curency/g...
Silver is at about 20 dollars. I'm young and I have like 80 years until I die. In that time, silver will be consumed a lot and we will have a lot less of it when it's needed. So, I don't care if it doesn't go up next year or anytime very soon, but with this fact that silver is being used up, will silver go up? How much do you predict?
