I can only speck from my experience as I make my living in the stock market and TA makes uo about 75% of the decision process
You, sir, do not really understand what TA is all about. You seem to have read a few books but you have not LEARNED how to do it. I studied TA for 20 years before I entered the market for real, somehow I don't think you are prepared to put in the work.
There is a lot of crap spouted as TA and it takes time to test, retest and test again until you sort out for yourself what works and what does not work...you cannot depend on books for everything. In my experience they only discuss generalities.
Personally I don't use Candlesticks very much...they are really a day trader tool and I am not a day trader so I don't pay a lot of attention to candlesticks...do they work...certainly as they have been used in Japan for over 100 years...and started to be popular in North America in the 1990's but on a daily basis I don't find them particularly reliable DOES that mean they are useless....not at all, I find them very useful at establishing resistance/support trends
If you blindly follow ANYONE in the stock market game you are very foolish....your needs are not the same as their needs even if they give good advice. You have to have the tools to evaluate advice, otherwise you can easily parted from your money like those born every minute.
There are a few chartists on this website but I suppose I am the most vocal. If you follow my posts on individual stocks, when I do a TA on a stock I use at a minimum 4 charts, totaling at least 8 indicators, about 6-7 overlays and draw a consensus from what I see...I do NOT hang my hat on a single chart type or indicator as individually they can mislead you....but the pieces of the puzzle don't all lie at the same time. A consensus will usually cancel out the bad guys.
Am I 100% correct in my assessments?...heII no!...but I submit my batting average here is pretty decent....but it took me 20 years to work it out...now I am retired (early) and it is my sole income....so does Technical Analysis work....yep...if you learn how to do it properly and follow your own advice and not some "guru".
Edit: @John....hahaha...I think he means 4 years in the investment game...he is probably about 5 times that number from the way he writes.
If you are trying to predict share movements in a 20-60 mins period then you are a gambler rather than an investor, applying a system more useful at the roulette wheel than the stock market.
Your guru made lots of money in a bull market with all the young bulls swallowing the rubbish that prices e.g. shares or houses ,can only go up.
They now know that share and house prices are like aeroplanes, in that every aircraft ever built has a ceiling above which it cannot sustain flight ,thereby going into a steep dive that only a firm hand and experience can hope to cure.
TA is for longer term investment.
I'm making big money with binary option, I use this software ( http://forexsignal.kyma.info ) My software delivers signals only when the five indicators (bp trend filter, market deviation, price pattern, rel. price impulse, stat. price range) are aligned together and we have an extremely high confidence rate, it must then co-exist with my proven secret strategy before a trade be detected… as a result, we get a guaranteed Highly-Accurate ’80-100%’ Signal.
Forget technical analysis, the stock market is FIXED and no amount of technical analysis can help you unless you are a millionaire with professionals who look after your investment. You will DEFINITELY lose whatever money you put into the stock market, its just a matter of time before they clean you out.
"I am 4 years old now"
You don't have any particularly good insights here but your writing and grasp of English is extraordinary for someone your age. I think you will do fine but you can wait for awhile...
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Is there any evidence that technical analysis, ie: looking at a chart and predicting where it is going to go by the patterns it makes. Is there any evidence that this works, in the long, medium, short, or very very short term. For example if i saw a hammerhead formation on a 5 min candlestick, is the odds of the price of the share going up in the very short run (20 mins-1 hour) above 50%?
I have a little bit of experience in the stockmarket, from back before the recession, i followed a technical analysis guru, who seemed that he was never wrong, predicting short term trends on a day to day basis, always seeming to be right for months on end...... i almost doubled my money, until he got it wrong but stood by his prediction for weeks and weeks and I i blindly believed this new "jesus like" man, my money slowly ticked down to nothing and i ended up begging for cash so i could reopen my position.
I am 4 years old now, but i was just wondering if there is any evidence that these indicators such as a hammer head, are relevant at all, from short to long term.
I have read a few well known books saying that it is a load of nonsense, but would be open to reading about it from the other side, if there are any with proven evidence that they can make it work.
