right now Apple share price is approaching the adjusted price of about $97 after the 7:1 forward split.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pn...
This will be a psychological resistance point for most investors.
from a charting point of view there will be dramatic move in the next little while
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=...
the Bollinger bands are tightening but despite the last Friday's up-tick I would not bet on the movement of price moving toward the $97 resistance point. The MACD and SLOW Sto are not reversing their downward trend and if the BBWidth suddenly rises without a corresponding rise in MACD and SLow Sto...then there would be a decline in the share price. Usually a rise in the MACD and Slow Sto leads the way to a bullish breakout (look at Apr 14-21 as an example of that recently)
So I would wait and see the look is not really bearish but neither is it bullish either.
Fundamentally, I agree the strength of the company is the devoted customers. However they appear to be stalled as far as innovation to me. They make promises of new product such as iWatch and iTV in the past but they never seem to deliver on those promises. On the other hand others such as Samsung most importantly have delivered smart TV's now for about a year...they even introduced a smart watch (the value of this baffles me unless you feel like Dick Tracy) and if you look at other applications of their technology... mainly house hold appliances... it is not hard to see the vision of really controlling houses through linking these appliances to a home consul....there is vision there.
I don't see the vision in APPLE right now....yes they are bringing out yet another tablet/cellphone {drooling sarcastically} but these devices are approaching maturity in their product lifecycle...where is the vision of Steven Jobs??? I don't see it.
But you cannot argue with the legion of devoted customers, I suppose. The upshot is...the price may rise to $97 but I would not be that confident of breaking that resistance. Frankly it would probably be more of a buy IF it did break $97...that would show a renewed confidence in the prospects of the company...right now I am not sure that is there
In terms of absolute dollars, Apple stock has been in the hundreds for the past few years. Earlier this month the stock was near an all-time high until they performed a 7:1 split which reduced the price to under $100.
So the question if the share price is going to increase past $100 now - it all depends on Apple's ability to outperform, because hitting $100 after the split would push Apple at its highest valuation ever.
Apple is already trading at a moderate P/B premium of 4.56; its trailing P/E is 15.4 and forward P/E 13.3.
Considering these factors, I do believe Apple has a little left in its tank, but not enough to enter an investment position. The company hasn't done anything extraordinary in years.
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It's really amazing that a guy who claims to have written a book on the stock market gives the P/B of Apple as his first ratio. The only reason Apple's P/B isn't much higher is that they are stockpiling cash to avoid repatriating it and paying taxes. Cash in an account is not the value of Apple and any company's pile of cash is worth less than its nominal value.
The value of Apple is in its devoted customers, it's extraordinary brand recognition, its patents and other in-house developed intangibles, it's employees. In short everything that is not in the "book".
Will apple's share price rise above what it was valued at i 2012? it was 100, then everyone panicked and it dropped to 54, now its 91, will it rise above?
