Here is a link to a page that explains common methods for estimating a company's growth rates:
http://www.intrinsicvaluespm.com/spmvari...
I prefer to create a financial model which includes what I believe are the most relevant variables for the company.
For example, if I were looking at a small, growing restaurant chain, I would see what management's plans are for number of stores to be built in the next several years. I would use my judgement to determine whether or not the plans are reasonable, and if so, I would take the average revenue per store and multiply by management's projection.
For real estate companies I would look at the leases they already have, and the company's plans for future acquisitions. Real estate is pretty straightforward because the lease terms often spell out the company's revenues for you. The situation is similar with regulated utility companies (which have their future pricing and capital plans approved by the government).
So long story short, a good forecast considers the variables which effect the company - and that depends on the industry the company operates in. I wish it were as simple as looking at historical data, or taking a time series regression, and in the case of some extremely stable, blue chip stocks - this might work out. However in my experience, most companies require a lot more critical thinking, and a lot more research in order to get anything reasonably accurate.
I would say - Time Series regression .
Reasons being plenty still, i would say its ability to predict the stock price for a particular day or time makes it much better choice than taking average growth rate.
Average growth rate based on historical data such as revenue growth percentage? Or a time series regression? and why
